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Sunday, September 23, 2012

Northern Michigan is Key to Dems Victory in November

Published: Tuesday, August 14, 2012, 8:45 AM Updated: Tuesday, August 14, 2012, 8:54 AM




 





(courtesy photo -- Bridge Magazine)
Northern Michigan has miles of pristine Great Lakes shoreline, wineries of growing renown, the Porcupine Mountains, M-119, M-22 and the world famous Mystery Spot.
What it doesn’t have much of these days are Democrats filling the region’s seats in the state House of Representatives.
In November 2008, Democrats collected 190,000 votes in securing seven districts stretching from Ironwood to Alpena to Ludington. Two years later, that vote total plunged to less than 96,000 and only one seat remained in Democratic hands.
Any chance the Democrats are to have in picking up the 10 seats required for a House majority next year relies heavily on taking back some of those seats in the Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula.
bridge-logo-for-mlive.jpgNews and Analysis from The Center for Michigan
In their favor, the Democrats nominated in the Aug. 7 primary are facing first-term Republican incumbents forced to run their first re-election campaigns in a higher turnout presidential election. While the GOP candidates have plenty of cash on hand, they are also facing a broader group of voters less likely to be familiar with them, and more open to considering criticism of their voting records in Lansing.
Rep. Peter Lund of Shelby Township, who’s heading the GOP House campaign effort, said his party is taking a statewide, not regional approach:
“We are looking at a lot of seats, throughout the state -- seats we are defending, open seats and we’ll go after some Democrats as well. Wherever we see an opportunity, we will go there and play hard,” Lund said this week.
Scott Dandia, the Democratic nominee from Calumet in a 110th District that covers the western UP, said two main issues will make the difference in his rematch with incumbent Republican Rep. Matt Huuki of Atlantic Mine: education funding and taxes.
Both, he asserted, are examples of how Northern Michigan Republicans have failed to represent the interests of their constituents by providing critical deciding votes for an agenda crafted by Gov. Rick Snyder and downstate business interests.
Most school districts in northern Michigan receive the minimum foundation allowance of $6,846 in the current budget year. While Republicans boosted that to $6,966 for 2013, it’s still $350 less than in fiscal 2009.
Adjusting for inflation, the minimum foundation grant of $7,316 in fiscal 2009 would equal $7,825 in 2012.
While a number of factors are responsible for the decline, Democrats will try to blame the Republicans’ $400 million transfer of K-12 funds to community colleges and universities.
Northern Michigan also has plenty of senior homeowners living on fixed incomes, some of it from pensions. Dianda and his fellow Democrats plan to hammer their opponents for voting for Gov. Rick Snyder’s overhaul that applies Michigan's personal income tax to all or part of public and private pension income for retirees born after 1945. The tax package also scaled back the homestead property tax credit for homeowners with more than $21,000 in annual income. For seniors with $30,000 in income or more, the credit declines by some 40 percent. Seniors and others with more than $50,000 in income lose it entirely. The old cutoff was $82,650.
A House Fiscal Agency analysis of eight examples of senior households last year found that the income tax increases for the current tax year would range from $326 to $3,130, depending on age, source and amount of income, and size of property tax bill. Dianda said Republicans are underestimating the political fallout.
“We have a heavy demographic of seniors living in their homes and (Republicans) are raising their taxes,” Dianda said.
Republicans can counter that the tax shift from business to individuals was critical for boosting job creating and making Michigan more economically competitive. Democrats will counter by asking how well it has worked out, given 9 percent unemployment rates across the north. At 10.3 percent in June, the northeast Lower Peninsula region had the highest jobless rate in the state.
The GOP’s Lund declined to go into detail on which seats had his party’s focus for November, though he emphasized that there are vulnerable Democrats on the ballot.
“I’ve always felt we had the advantage, but we’re taking nothing for granted. So much can happen. … The math looks good to me, to everybody, but … we will not be caught off-guard. We are going to fight in every seat,” Lund said.

101st District will Tell the Tale
Any formula that has the Democrats taking back the House runs through the picturesque 101st District that runs along the shore of Lake Michigan from Ludington up to Northport. There probably isn’t a district that better illustrates the debacle the 2010 election really was for Democrats. For Democrats, the 2012 path to a 56-seat majority requires a victory in the 101st.

Rep. Ray Franz, R-Onekama, narrowly won the seat in 2010 with 19,386 votes, about 1,000 fewer than he received in his 2008 losing effort. He’s in the House because Democrat Dan Scripps received an astonishing 12,000 fewer votes in the 2010 rematch than he did in 2008.
“It is a targeted priority,” said Democratic nominee Allen O’Shea, a Copemish distributor of home energy saving products. “I have a lot of support from the caucus.”
After talking to those who write the campaign checks in the next couple of weeks, he’ll soon find out how big of a priority it is.
In its July filing, the Michigan House Democratic Fund reported $782,000 cash on hand, about $70,000 less than what they reported in July 2010. The House Republican Campaign Committee last month reported nearly $1.5 million cash on hand, four times what they reported in July 2010.
The six Republican incumbents who seized Democratic-held seats in 2010 reported $284,000 cash on hand in July. Their six challengers reported $120,000 with five of them reporting less than $20,000 each. With $37,432 in the bank, Franz had twice O’Shea’s total.
Even in the unlikely event Democrats regain all the northern Michigan seats they lost in 2010, they’d still be four seats short, assuming all of the seats they currently hold remain in their hands. So Democratic success also relies on the fortunes of four former Democratic lawmakers: Terry Brown in the 84th, Jim Berryman in the 57th, and Mike Huckleberry in the 70th.
The fourth? That would be Roy Schmidt, the Grand Rapids Democrat turned Republican in the 76th District, who, along with House Speaker Jase Bolger, unsuccessfully sought to rig the November election in the Republicans’ favor.
State of play
The House of Representatives has 110 seats, but due to population patterns and the political nature of redistricting, only a fraction of districts are actually competitive in the fall elections. These 19 districts will determine which major party controls the House starting January 2013.
* Key Northern Michigan contests:
110th: Matt Huuki (R) v. Scott Diandi (D)
108th: Ed McBroom (R) v. Sharon Gray (D)
107th: Frank Foster (R) v. Sharon Shumway (D)
106th: Pete Pettalia (R) v. Kenneth Hubbard (D)
103rd: Bruce Rendon (R) v. Lon Johnson (D)
101st: Ray Franz (R) v. Allen O’Shea (D)
* Three Republican seats being pursued by former Democratic lawmakers:
84th: Don Grimshaw (R) v. Terry Brown (D)
57th: Nancy Jenkins (R) v. Jim Berryman (D)
70th: Rick Outman (R) v. Mike Huckleberry (D)
* Other Republican-held seats to receive attention:76th: Roy Schmidt (R) v. Winnie Brinks (D)
23rd: Pat Somerville (R) v. Tom Boritzki (D)
91st: Holly Hughes (R) v. Colleen LaMonte (D)
56th: Dale Zorn (R) v. Larry Crider (D)
52nd: Mark Ouimet (R) v. Gretchen Driskell (D)
71st: Deb Shaughnessy (R) v. Theresa Abed (D)
* Key open seats now held by Democrats:
67th: Jeff Oesterle (R) v. Tom Cochran (D)
25th: Sean Clark (R) v. Henry Yanez (D)
* Key incumbent Democratic seats:
21st: Dian Slavens (D) v. Joe Barnabel (R)
50th: Charles Smiley (D) v. Miles Gadola (R)



Peter Luke was a Lansing correspondent for Booth Newspapers for nearly 25 years, writing a weekly column for most of that time with a concentration on budget, tax and economic development policy issues. He is a graduate of Central Michigan University.


© Bridge Magazine, reprinted with permission. Bridge Magazine, a publication of The Center for Michigan, produces independent, nonprofit public affairs journalism and is a partner with MLive.

Saturday, September 22, 2012

Alcona DEMS HQ Open for Oct. 3rd Debate & Public Forums on the Ballot Proposals

The Democratic headquarters will be open for the first Presidential debate on October 3. Come watch with your fellow Democrats and cheer on the President. The debate starts at 9:00 pm.
A series of public forums on the ballot proposals is being sponsored by Citizens for Alcona First. Voters are invited to come learn about state-wide and county proposals and voice their own perspectives. Printed materials will be available to share with your friends and neighbors. Disseminating information about the proposals is important because many people go to the polls unprepared to vote on the issues.
The public forum schedule follows. They all begin at 7:00 pm.
 
Thursday, September 27, Senior Citizen Center, Lincoln
 
Monday, October 1,         Greenbush township hall
 
Wednesday, October 10,  Harrisville township hall
 
Wednesday, October 17,  Alcona township hall
 
Wednesday,October 24,  old Methodist Church on Hwy 72/65 in Curran
 
Please plan on attending one or more of the events. It is important that progressive voices are heard and that we are all well equipped to answer questions about the proposals. Knowledge is power and Your VOTE is your VOICE !
For any questions or comments, feel free to call me.
Paul Peterson
Chair - Alcona County Democrats
989 - 657 - 0446

Sunday, September 16, 2012

Condensed Voters Guide for November 6th


Northern Michigan Democrat 2012 Democratic Voting Guide  - Tuesday November  6th
Print & Take With You to VOTE ...
Federal Candidates:
President BARACK OBAMA and Vice President JOE BIDEN
  • Senator DEBBIE STABENOW
  • Your Democratic congressional candidate
1st Congressional District  - GARY McDOWELL
 
106th State House District – KEN HUBBARD
 
 

Michigan Supreme Court: Vote for 3
          Connie Marie KELLY, Shelia   JOHNSON,   Bridget Mary McCORMACK

Education Board Candidates:
State Board of Education – Vote for 2
  • Michelle FECTEAU and Lupe RAMOS-MONTIGNY
MSU Board of Trustees-  Vote for 2
  • Joel FERGUSON and Brian MOSALLAM
U of M Board of Regents – Vote for 2
  • Mark BERNSTEIN and Shauna RYDER DIGGS
Wayne State Board of Governors Vote for 2
  • Sandra Hughes O'BRIEN and Kim TRENT

*************************BALLOT******PROPOSALS*****************************************************

#1 – Governor Snyder’s Emergency Manager Act – A “NO” vote will repeal it

#2 – Guarantees collective bargaining rights in the state Constitution and repeals some anti-union laws already in place.  A “YES” vote is recommended

#3 – 25% of state’s energy to be by renewables such as wind, solar, hydro, etc. by 2025. A “YES” vote is recommended.

#4 - Establish Michigan Quality Home Care Council & provide for collective   bargaining for in-home care workers. A  YES” vote is recommended.

#5 - Change voting rules of the Michigan House & Senate and state wide referendum questions concerning taxes, requiring 2/3 majority. A “NO” vote is recommended.

#6 - Require vote of the people on all international bridge projects. A “YES” vote is recommended.

Friday, September 14, 2012


Alcona
2012 Democratic Voting Guide

Tuesday November  6th

Federal Candidates:

  • President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden
  • Senator Debbie Stabenow
  • Your Democratic congressional candidate

1st Congressional District  - Gary McDowell
 
106th State House District - Ken Hubbard
 
 

Michigan Supreme Court:

  • Connie Marie Kelley
  • Shelia             Johnson
  • Bridget Mary McCormack
  • ******************************************************************

Ballot Proposals:

  •  "NO" on proposals 1 and 5.
  •  
  • "YES" on proposals 2 and 4.
  • See attached for information on Proposal #3 and #6
  • *****************************************************************

Education Board Candidates:

  • State Board of Education –
  • Michelle Fecteau and Lupe Ramos-Montigny
  •  
  • MSU Board of Trustees-
  • Joel Ferguson and Brian Mosallam
  •  
  • U of M Board of Regents –
  • Mark Bernstein and Shauna Ryder Diggs
  •  
  • Wayne State Board of Governors
  • Sandra Hughes O'Brien and Kim Trent
  • ******************************************************************
PROPOSAL   #3 – “25 by 2025” Renewable Energy

Opposed by 180 organizations & individuals led by Consumers Power and DTE including Farm Bureau, Michigan Chamber of Commerce and Michigan Manufacturers Association. Neither political Party has taken a position on this question.

OPPONENTS say : this is “radical” and would make Michigan the only state to mandate a renewable energy standard … natural gas & coal prices are at an all time low …of 1,200 coal fired jobs, 300-350 could be lost by 2017 … Opposed by AMWAY and western Michigan groups.

PROPONENTS say :

25% of state’s energy would come through renewable energy by 2025 … would limit rate increases to a maximum of 1% per year while producing power from wind, solar, biomass and hydro power … wind and solar create manufacturing , installation & maintenance jobs …renewable energy is good for the environment … Does not contribute to global warming …MSU study says it will create thousands of jobs and generate $10.3 billion in new investments … would lower mfg. costs … supported by UAW, state and national environmental groups.

A “YES” vote is recommended.
 

PROPOSAL #1 EMERGENCY MANAGER ACT

The measure will ask voters if they want to approve PUBLIC ACT 4 of 2011, the state’s revised emergency manager law.

Opponents say that the law usurps the votes and democratic process in affected communities by imposing managers with dictatorial power paid at exhorbatant salaries.

The Republican party recommends a “YES” vote.

The Democratic Party and the UAW recommends a “NO” vote.

 A “NO” vote will repeal the law.

 

PROPOSAL # 2 Guarantee Right to Collectively Bargain

This is a union backed measure that guarantees  collective bargaining rights in the state Constitution and repeals some anti-union laws already in place.

Supported by UAW & Democratic Party

Opposed by Republican Party

A “YES” vote is recommended

 

PROPOSAL # 4  Establish Michigan Quality Home Care Council & provide for collective

                                            Collective bargaining for in-home care workers.

 

Backed by UAW & Democratic Party

Opposed by Republican Party

 

A “YES” vote is recommended

 

 

PROPOSAL# 5  Require 2/3 vote to raise taxes

Would change voting rules of the Michigan House & Senate and state wide referendum questions concerning taxes, requiring 2/3 majority.

 

Republicans have not taken a position on this question.

Opposed by UAW & Democratic Party.

 

 A “NO” vote is recommended.

  
 

PROPOSAL # 6  Require vote of the people on all international bridge projects

Would require a vote of the people ( a referendum ) to approve any state spending on any international bridge projects.

Note : Governor Snyder has said he WILL enter into an agreement with Canada to build a new bridge. There is a chance that Michigan could end up paying for it ).

The UAW, Democrats & Republicans did not take a position on this.